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In most sports, player movement defines the offseason. A free agent signs with a new team. A team makes a big trade. A new draft pick shows promise. College football is different. In recent years, the offseason has been less about players moving around and more about the suits that run the sport pontificating on how the whole enterprise should operate.

They have never done more arguing than they’re doing right now. There is a wrinkle, though: Once you get past the bureaucracy, this sport’s offseason is starting to look a bit more like those in other major U.S. leagues.

Let me explain. From new recruiting rules to NIL deals and more, here’s what to track between now and the next college football season’s kickoff at the start of September.

College Football Offseason 2022: The Top Stories That’ll Shape Next Season

Jimbo Fisher has called a presser after Nick Saban claimed that Texas A&M “bought” players.

“Some people think they’re God… Go dig into his past, and how he’s done things.”

He says Saban tried to call him last night.

“I didn’t take the call. We’re done.” pic.twitter.com/jxOuJQ3J2R

— Front Office Sports (@FOS) May 19, 2022

1. The sport is in a moral panic over player compensation.

If you follow college football even a little bit, you have undoubtedly noticed a lot of hand-wringing over two recent rule changes.

In April 2021, the NCAA reversed decades of policy by allowing athletes to transfer schools without sitting out a season, as had been custom from the beginning of college sports. The association made the move under heavy pressure. It had drawn a lot of criticism over the years for subjecting unpaid athletes to tighter movement restrictions than well-paid coaches and administrators, who had no such requirement to sit out after a move.

Three months after that change came an even bigger one. After more than a dozen states had passed laws forcing it to do so, the NCAA dropped another ban that had lasted for all of college sports history: a prohibition on athletes receiving money from third parties for the use of their name, image, or likeness.

Since then, “NIL” has become shorthand for a new era. At many schools, boosters set up “collective” organizations that have sought to pay players (under the guise of advertising and charity deals) to attend their schools. The NCAA has tried to make clear the practice is not allowed, but it ultimately hasn’t been able to do much about it; the organization is worried that aggressive action to rein in player deals will lead to antitrust lawsuits that it could lose.

The early-May transfer announcement of Pitt receiver Jordan Addison, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the country’s top pass-catcher last year, seemed like an unofficial starting gun for a fresh round of worry. The confluence of free transfers and a lightly regulated third-party payment system for players still falls way short of the true free agency that exists in pro sports. Even so, it represents a big departure from the previous college football status quo.

Addison picked USC last Friday. That same day, Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban got into the highest-profile coaching beef the sport has ever seen, and it was sparked in part by NIL deals and collective recruiting.

Nobody knows how this will all settle. The NCAA wants Congress to pass a national NIL law that would supersede the patchwork of state laws currently in effect, but Congress has yet to play ball, and it’s a midterm election year. For the time being, expect more and more transfers. Your school’s college football roster today will likely not be the same on Labor Day.

2. The NCAA is lifting initial counter limits.

One of college football’s foundational rules is that teams can only add 25 new scholarship players per year (with some exceptions and the ability to frontload and backload signing classes). The limit of 25 “initial counters” is important because it reduces the incentive for coaches to “over-sign”—to bring in too many players—and then run them out of their programs when they’ve decided they’re not good enough.

But that rule is on its way out, as the NCAA’s DI Council announced on May 18. It’s a direct response to the rising number of players entering the transfer portal, as teams have risked losing players at a higher rate than they’re able to replace them while still offering scholarships to high school recruits. For now, it’s being presented as a two-year rule waiver, but college football experts think it will become permanent. It sounds like a minute rule change, but it could result in the best recruiting programs (like Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State) loading up with larger, more elite signing classes in certain years.

3. Conference championship games might look different this year.

In addition, the NCAA also announced on May 18 that it will relax its regulation of conference championship games. That’ll give each conference more freedom to sort out how it selects title game participants. The Pac-12 took advantage immediately and announced that rather than the winners of its two divisions meeting in its championship game, the teams with the two best records, regardless of division, will get the nod.

The NCAA’s change opens the door for other conferences to do the same. There’s a good chance some will; it would help them maximize their chances of their best team getting picked for the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten and ACC, for example, have lopsided division structures with all of the potential Playoff teams on one side, and either conference might decide to do exactly what the Pac-12 has done.

4. Will the FBS go rogue and leave the NCAA?

Finally, Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith seems to want the FBS, the top teams in the college football rankings, to break away from the NCAA altogether. It is not clear what that would accomplish, given that those schools already govern themselves within the NCAA. But a working idea is that, years down the line, a non-NCAA college football division would give schools the flexibility to run the sport more like a business, without the regulatory requirements of other NCAA sports. This story won’t be settled in the 2022 offseason, but keep an eye on it.

5. Oh, and there’s an actual college football season to prepare for, too.

The endless debate over governing NCAA football has taken up almost all of the spotlight lately. Even so, actual football questions are lurking in the background:

Does Texas A&M have a QB? This might not get resolved until the season’s actually started, but it’s one of the most important questions facing any single position group at one program. The Aggies had a nearly title-caliber team in 2021 (and even beat Alabama), but an injury in September to QB Haynes King doomed them. If King stays healthy this year, will that be enough for them to go all the way?

Is the QB carousel done spinning for a bit? Probably. But once fall camp rolls around and certain passers fail to win starting jobs, expect it to fire up again.

Actual football starts in just over three months. Now begins the ultimate offseason workout: Finding things to talk about until conference media days provide more catnip.

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Not long ago, it was possible to win national championships without elite college football quarterbacks. Nick Saban’s Alabama teams did it three times between 2009 and 2012. Each time they relied on dominant defenses, punishing running games, and QBs who mainly had to make sure they didn’t throw too many interceptions.

But the sport has changed. Spread offenses that rely on high-volume, high-difficulty passing have put a premium on QBs who can chuck the ball around more accurately than their predecessors. It’s no longer possible to win it all without one of the best QBs in the country.

2021 is shaping up to be an interesting season. A big handful of potential title contenders, plus a few peripheral contenders who made their own runs last season, are replacing their QBs. Trying to figure out which teenaged QBs will dominate is tricky at best, but one way of sorting out their chances of success is to look at the teams they’ll be taking over.

Here are eight teams breaking in new starting quarterbacks this fall, ranked (from best to worst) by how favorable of a situation the young signal-caller will walk into.

1. Clemson

It’s hard to imagine a more ideal environment for new QB D.J. Uiagalelei. The former five-star prospect joined Clemson in 2020 and acquitted himself well in nine appearances. He also played admirably in his two starts while eventual No. 1 NFL draft pick Trevor Lawrence recovered from COVID-19.

Uiagalelei will stand behind a dominant offensive line, and his receivers are the most appealing targets a QB could ask for. Chief among them: The 6’4” Justyn Ross will return this year after a spinal condition cost him his 2020 season, and he should give Uiagalelei a premier deep threat.

2. Ohio State

Former five-star C.J. Stroud is poised to replace Chicago Bears draftee Justin Fields under center for the Buckeyes. The only reason Clemson’s situation ranks above Ohio State is that Uiagalelei has already had the chance to work in Clemson’s offense, while Stroud will see his first game action this fall. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Stroud has the best wide receiver duo in college football at his disposal. He’ll also work behind the Big Ten’s best offensive line and under the tutelage of head coach Ryan Day, one of the sport’s best QB developers.

3. Alabama

There is a case to be made that new signal-caller Bryce Young—yet another former five-star recruit on this list—is walking into a worse situation than recent Alabama QBs. But that is a highly relative statement. Young had a year to sit around and learn Bama’s offense as a true freshman in 2020, and while that offense will change somewhat now that Bill O’Brien has replaced Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator, it likely won’t be a total overhaul.

Young will have boatloads of talent around him, and Bama’s stingy defense will ensure he rarely has to play from behind. The Crimson Tide lost a couple of brilliant receivers, including Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, but returning wideout John Metchie III will soften the blow.

4. Texas A&M

It’s not entirely clear who will replace Kellen Mond as the quarterback for the Aggies. In fact, the position might be A&M’s biggest weakness in what could be a College Football Playoff year. But whether Haynes King or Zach Calzada earns the job, the eventual QB will have quite a supporting cast around him.

The Aggies’ pass-catchers are arguably the best in the SEC. Tight end Jalen Wydermeyer is one of the sport’s best over-the-middle threats, and Ainias Smith can put his game-breaking agility to use in numerous ways. The biggest problem facing A&M’s eventual QB might just be the pressure he’s under to keep a potentially historic season on track.

5. Texas

The Longhorns have a QB battle on their hands between Casey Thompson and Hudson Card. Whoever wins and keeps the starting job will benefit from new coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense, which propelled Alabama’s undefeated run to the national championship last year. Texas should have decent units at running back, wide receiver, and offensive line, but it’s not likely that the Longhorns will be great at any one thing. Thompson or Card will have to do a lot of heavy lifting to improve UT’s standing in the Big 12, and that’s a tall order for either player.

6. Florida

New QB Emory Jones is a strong breakout candidate. A big, bulky player with strong running ability and a rocket arm, his athletic profile is kind of like a Tim Tebow with better throwing ability. But he’s entering a potentially difficult situation, with Florida’s two best receivers from 2020 (tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Kadarius Toney) now in the NFL. Last year’s Gators relied a great deal on those two, as any team would have—they were two of the most devastating players in America.

Other than running back Malik Davis, UF will not retain a single player who received more than 20 pass targets in 2020. Combine that with a possibly weak offensive line and regular competition against high-end SEC defenses, and Jones will have a lot on his plate.

7. Notre Dame

Three-year starter Ian Book is gone, and Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is in. Coan will have a difficult time getting Notre Dame back to the Playoff, which Book reached twice. The Irish don’t have a single wide receiver who appears to have game-breaking talent (though one could emerge), and the team’s offensive line just lost four players to the NFL. Coan has never shown much ability as a deep downfield passer, and he’ll likely have a hard time finding any targets this fall.

8. BYU

The Cougars are dead last in the Football Bowl Subdivision in terms of returning production. They didn’t just lose QB Zach Wilson to the NFL; they also saw their three best offensive linemen depart. And maybe just as critically, highly regarded offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, the architect of the offense Wilson led so beautifully in 2020, left to take the same job at Baylor. New QB Jaren Hall might be good—he showed some flashes in his last game action in 2019—but he’s walking into a meat grinder.

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The first week of the college football season is quickly approaching, but for football fans, it can’t come soon enough. While season-long predictions based on teams’ performance in Week 1 college football games are always a little sketchy, there may be more of that than usual this year. For one thing, everyone’s skittish after a farcical 2020 season that saw 139 game cancellations or postponements. We’re eager for a return to normalcy, and that means picking studs and duds as quickly as possible. But that’s not the only reason: This fall’s Week 1 schedule—unfolding across the week of September 4—really is juicy.

Here are seven Week 1 games that stand out as events to circle on your football calendar.

Thursday, 7 p.m. (EDT) on ESPN: Boise State at UCF

These have been the two defining “non-power” programs of the last decade—and in Boise’s case, longer than that. Both have proven they can hack it with anybody in the Power 5 conferences, and both have had to scrap for national status.

But both programs are in transition right now, as their head coaches (Boise’s Bryan Harsin and UCF’s Josh Heupel) left to take over the programs at Auburn and Tennessee last winter, respectively. The Broncos hired former Boise player and assistant Andy Avalos, and UCF brought on recently fired Auburn head coach and king of college football buyouts Gus Malzahn. In addition to a fun kickoff game, this will be a curiosity-quenching look at the teams’ two new head coaches.

Saturday, 12 p.m. (EDT) on FOX: Penn State at Wisconsin

There’s likely to be some anxiety in the air at this premier Big Ten game. Penn State started last year 0–5 before winning its last four games to finish 4–5, and Wisconsin went a tepid 4–3 while failing to claim its usual place atop the conference’s West division. (Northwestern won it instead.)

Whoever wins this one will be off to a nice start in an effort to post a rebound season. Whoever loses—especially if it’s Penn State, which will still have to get through the more difficult East division after playing Wisconsin—will quickly cut into their margin for error.

Saturday, 2 p.m. (EDT) on Pac-12 Networks: Fresno State at Oregon

Fresno State should be tons of fun to watch this season. The Bulldogs were just so-so in 2020, but they have almost all of their key players back in the fold. Quarterback and Washington transfer Jake Haener, running back Ronnie Rivers, and receiver Jalen Cropper should all be among the best players in the Mountain West.

On the other hand, Oregon should again be a top-tier contender in the Pac-12. This year, the Ducks have maybe the best returning defensive player in the country: defensive end and potential No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Kayvon Thibodeaux. Oregon should win this game, but it will be instructive to see how strong both teams look and if newly minted Oregon starting QB Anthony Brown plays well.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (EDT) on ABC: Miami vs. Alabama

Here’s how Bama usually treats Week 1: The Crimson Tide like to play a neutral-site game in some NFL stadium (this year, it’s in Atlanta) against a decent but overmatched opponent whom they promptly destroy. That will probably happen again this year.

But maybe it won’t! There are numerous reasons to think the Tide will be slightly worse off this season than normal, and if you squint right, you could imagine ultra-skilled Miami QB D’Eriq King dropping a lot of touchdowns on the Bama defense. It’s not likely, but there’s some chance the Hurricanes put up a good fight in this game and at least make Tide fans sweat. This will also be the last of Bama’s long series of neutral-site openers, as they start a home-and-home, on-campus series with Texas in 2022.

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (EDT) on Fox: Louisiana at Texas

The Ragin’ Cajuns will be heavy underdogs in this game. But should they be? They were a better team than Texas in 2020, when they made the Sun Belt Championship and the Longhorns sputtered to their now-typical mediocre bowl game appearance. And Louisiana has more returning production than almost anyone in college football, while Texas has both a new head coach (Steve Sarkisian) and a new QB (Casey Thompson) to break in. Louisiana has one of the most athletic rosters in the Group of 5 conferences, and it would not be surprising if Billy Napier’s team gave the Horns a run in Austin.

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. on Fox: Georgia vs. Clemson

This will be the premier game of not just Week 1, but maybe the entire season. The Bulldogs and Tigers will play at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium, and the winner will become an instant national championship favorite (at least in the eyes of many onlookers).

For Clemson, it’s the start of a new era. With QB Trevor Lawrence off to the Jacksonville Jaguars as the NFL’s top draft pick, five-star second-year man D.J. Uiagalelei will step into the sport’s most important position. (Uiagalelei started a few games in 2020, when Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19, and the understudy played well.)

Georgia has a returning QB in JT Daniels, but the Dawgs will have their own questions to answer. Maybe the most pressing: How will UGA’s ostensibly dominant offensive line hold up when it faces Clemson, perhaps the country’s most fearsome defensive front?

Sunday, 7:30 p.m. (EDT) on ABC: Notre Dame at Florida State

Notre Dame will be worse than last year, when the Irish made the College Football Playoff. Florida State will be better than last year, when the Seminoles went 3–6. The question is how far one team will move down and the other up.

The Irish are one of the few teams that haven’t retained the vast majority of their key players from 2020, and their losses include three-year starting quarterback Ian Book. They’re also moving back to conference independence after playing 2020’s schedule in the ACC.

FSU is living in a new world now that second-year coach Mike Norvell overhauled the roster with transfer pickups from other teams. The most critical to a turnaround, by far, is former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton, who was one of the best players in the country before a devastating knee injury late in 2018. If Milton is healthy and back to his old self, the Noles’ fortunes will change in a hurry.

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The range of potential outcomes in an Alabama football season under Nick Saban is narrow. The Crimson Tide are almost certainly going to make the College Football Playoff, and the main question mark is whether they’ll win the whole thing or fall ever so slightly short. The Tide have only missed the Playoff once since 2014, and even then they finished 11–2 (it took a QB injury and some trickery from Auburn to keep them out of the postseason).

For the rest of college football, any inkling that Alabama might be lesser than its usual self is a breath of fresh air. The possibility always exists that the Tide will just win anyway, and articles like this one will live in infamy as examples of naysayers who doubted when they should not have. But, as my Split Zone Duo co-host Richard Johnson has recently argued, there is some reason to think 2021 Alabama will be a little bit worse than normal for the modern Tide. Let’s talk about the case for a Bama down year.

This year, almost every team has lots of talent returning—except Bama.

The pandemic-affected 2020 college football season was kind of a mess, with countless (literally—many schools didn’t release numbers) players catching the virus and at least 139 canceled games. Before the season, the NCAA decided to treat the year more or less as a wash, and it granted every player a “free” year of eligibility. The 2020 season didn’t count toward an athlete’s eligibility clock, so a senior in 2020 could be a senior again in 2021.

The predictable result is that most teams have many key players returning this fall. In a normal year, the average Football Bowl Subdivision team retains 63 percent of its statistical production from the year prior, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. In 2021, the average is 77 percent, and only 14 teams are below the usual average. Alabama is one of them, with just 56 percent of its production returning. The losses include six first-round NFL draft picks, among them Heisman Trophy-winning receiver DeVonta Smith. It is a major exodus of high-end talent.

The new QB might be awesome, but he’s untested.

Bama’s quarterback last year, Mac Jones, put up some of the best numbers in college football history while guiding the Tide to an undefeated national championship season. Jones plays for the New England Patriots now, and his replacement is a five-star “freshman,” Bryce Young, who was also a freshman last year. (Remember that free year of eligibility.) Young is supposed to be excellent; he was the No. 1 dual-threat QB and No. 2 overall player in the class of 2020.

But you never know until a QB actually puts it all together on the field, and Young hasn’t done that yet. He didn’t get much of a chance to do it as Jones’ backup, but then again, he wasn’t dazzling in the reps he did get in 2020. In seven appearances, generally in mop-up duty during blowout wins, Jones completed 13 of 22 passes for 7.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and no interceptions. He was solid, but he didn’t break the doors down and didn’t show anything in the run game. Without much time on the field, it’s hard to judge how he’ll turn out. Young might win a Heisman this year; he might be just OK.

Young and the rest of the Bama offense also lost their coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, who left to take the head coaching job at Texas. Sarkisian had the benefit of the most talented players in the country, but he did win the Broyles Award (given to the nation’s top assistant coach) and he did do a good job putting those players in a position to succeed. Now he’s gone, replaced by former Houston Texans and Penn State coach Bill O’Brien. That change could also have negative effects.

The schedule might have a few more threats than normal.

Last year, nobody in the SEC put a real scare into Bama. Only one team played the Tide relatively close—Florida in the SEC Championship Game—but that game was not as close as the 52–46 final score indicated. The Tide held the Gators at arm’s length all night.

This year’s schedule has some landmines, though. The Tide should beat Miami comfortably in Week 1, but the Hurricanes have one of the best QBs in the country in D’Eriq King. The Tide should win road games against Florida in Week 3 and Texas A&M in Week 6, but both the Gators and the Aggies should be competitive this year, and there are few easy road wins against national title contenders, which many people think A&M will be in 2021. The late season brings a meeting with LSU, which should be a better team now that it has a new defensive coordinator, and a trip to Auburn, which has beaten Bama in three of its last four tries at home.

That’s five games that don’t look like cakewalks. Bama will of course not lose all of them, but even losing two would constitute a step back for Saban’s program.

Any time we talk about Alabama “having a down year,” we take a lot of risks.

Every reason to doubt the Tide comes with a reason to think they’ll be just fine.

• They lost six first-rounders from last year’s team? Great. They lost four the year before and went undefeated anyway. It helps to always recruit the best players.
• They have five potentially difficult games on the schedule? Cool. Right now, they’re slated to be favored in each of them.
• They’ll have to swap out their starting QB, their starting running back, and their two best receivers? Fine. They do that at most every two years now, and it hasn’t bothered them much yet.
• They don’t have Sarkisian, their star offensive coordinator? Whatever. Saban’s assistants always get head coaching jobs, and he always replaces them and then beats them.
• The offense is depleted? OK. The defense isn’t, with most key talent returning alongside coordinator Pete Golding. Good luck scoring a lot of points on this team.

All of that is fair. But if you look at Alabama in the right light—or the wrong light, depending on your perspective—you can find a sliver of a reason to believe they’ll lose multiple games in 2021. That is what the Crimson Tide have reduced everyone else in college football to: a state of constantly searching high and low for the smallest glitch in the machine, hoping a little flaw might somehow unravel the entire juggernaut. That won’t happen, and the Tide will continue living in others’ heads nationwide. But in 2021, maybe they’ll have to settle for only being better than 124 or so of the 130 FBS teams. That’ll show ’em.

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